The climate crisis stands as one of the most pressing international issues today, capturing global attention due to its severe and widespread impacts on societies and nations. Consequently, climate action has ascended to the forefront of both international and national agendas, aiming to tackle its multifaceted challenges. Moreover, the crisis has become deeply entwined with political action, emerging as a crucial element in political decision-making processes.
In the upcoming U.S. elections scheduled for November 2024, a fierce competition unfolds between Democrats and Republicans. Climate change emerges as a central issue, particularly in the stances of the presidential candidates: Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. This context raises critical questions: What positions do the U.S. presidential candidates hold on climate change? And how might this issue influence the election results this year?
Climate Losses
In 2023, the United States faced over 25 weather- and climate-related disasters, leading to economic losses of approximately $73 billion and the tragic loss of hundreds of lives. These disasters stemmed from extreme weather events, including storms, heavy rainfall, rising sea levels, high temperatures, droughts, and wildfires. The northeastern regions, in particular, proved to be among the most vulnerable to these severe weather phenomena.
Despite the ongoing divisions within American society regarding the seriousness of climate impact and its prioritization by decision-makers, there is a growing consensus on the necessity to mitigate factors exacerbating this crisis. This involves a transition toward renewable energy and sustainable projects. A Pew Research Center survey conducted in October 2016 revealed that around 36% of Americans, irrespective of political affiliation, acknowledge the decisive role humans play in causing climate phenomena. Furthermore, they express trust in climate scientists and their capacity to provide sufficient evidence on the causes of climate change.
Diverging Positions
To understand the relationship and mutual impact between climate change and the 2024 U.S. presidential election, it is crucial to examine the positions of the candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, on this issue.
1. Harris supporting climate action:
The campaign led by current President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris has prioritized ambitious climate goals. They aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% to 52% by 2030, achieve 100% pollution-free electricity from clean energy sources by 2035, and fully transition the U.S. economy to a sustainable, emissions-free model by 2050. Importantly, 40% of the benefits from federal investments in climate and clean energy are targeted to support underdeveloped communities.
Several key steps have been taken by the current U.S. administration, most notably the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which allocates approximately $400 billion over the next decade to combat carbon emissions. Additionally, the Infrastructure Law aids the transition to clean energy. The Biden Administration has also enacted executive actions to protect the environment and public health, combat pollution, and achieve environmental justice, with the aim of safeguarding over 41 million acres of land and freshwater. Furthermore, American companies have announced plans to construct approximately 580 facilities for clean energy production.
Under the Biden Administration, investments in clean energy projects, electric vehicles, batteries, wind turbine manufacturing, and solar panels have exceeded $390 billion. The administration has also launched the Climate Justice Agenda, integrating environmental justice into federal agencies' work to combat environmentally harmful activities. This ensures American citizens benefit from protections against air pollution, reduces pollution-related diseases, and supports access to green spaces.
Kamala Harris has strengthened her pro-climate stance since announcing her candidacy for the 2024 election as the Democratic Party nominee. Her candidacy has received endorsements from several environmental and climate advocacy movements due to her history of supporting climate justice. This includes prosecuting oil companies for environmental crimes as California's Attorney General, advocating for reduced red meat consumption to combat climate change, and supporting the Inflation Reduction Act, a significant achievement promoting a just transition toward clean energy.
Harris views climate change as a threat to various communities, a stance she reiterated at the United Nations Climate Summit (COP28) in the United Arab Emirates. There, she urged governments to take swift action against climate threats. The New York Times reported on July 22 that if Harris wins the election, she will bolster Biden's climate agenda, backed by environmental organizations. Harris emphasized that the progress made under the Biden Administration on climate issues must not be reversed, particularly if Trump secures a second term, as she considers him a threat to both the climate and the environment.
In an interview with CNN on August 29, 2024, Harris addressed her evolving stance on hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. While previously against it, she clarified her position, stating she opposes banning the controversial technology outright.
2. Trump’s opposition to climate action:
In contrast to Harris, Trump has consistently opposed climate action. During his first presidential term, he famously dismissed climate change as a "hoax." He repealed approximately 100 environmental regulations, withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, curtailed the powers of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and even removed the term "climate change" from its website. Prioritizing the expansion of oil and natural gas production, Trump advocated for increased land use for petroleum exploration. His goals for a potential second term include eliminating the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, rolling back Biden’s clean energy initiatives, and terminating the National Flood Insurance Program. Furthermore, he has called for drilling in the Arctic to explore fossil fuel reserves.
In statements published by The Washington Post on November 9, 2023, Trump expressed his belief that human activity is just one of many factors contributing to climate change, not the sole cause. He also rejects the notion that climate change is exacerbating extreme weather events. In 2022, he mocked the potential threats of rising sea levels, dismissing them as false. Similarly, in 2019, he attributed wildfires to poor forest management rather than climate change. During the announcement of his 2024 campaign, Trump pledged to reverse Biden's policies supporting the production and manufacturing of electric vehicles.
Trump's opposition to climate-related policies goes beyond merely stating his stance; he has also criticized his rival Harris, describing her advocacy for reducing red meat consumption as a "conspiracy theory." Additionally, J.D. Vance, Trump's chosen vice-presidential running mate, has echoed these sentiments, accusing Harris of wanting to take away gas stoves and meat from Americans.
Limited Impact
There is a notable division within American society regarding the role of climate change in the electoral process and its potential impact as a decisive factor in selecting the next U.S. president. Opinion polls consistently highlight this divide by assessing how climate change influences American voters' decisions.
A recent poll, conducted from April 25 to May 4, 2024, by the Yale Program on Climate Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, explored public opinion on global warming among other issues. Participants were asked whether they preferred candidates who support or oppose climate action. The results revealed that 37% of respondents favor candidates who advocate for climate action, while 25% support candidates addressing global warming, even if they don't consider it a crucial voting issue. Most other participants, however, do not view climate change as a decisive factor in their electoral preferences.
Previously, the CU Boulder Environmental Futures Center conducted a study on the significance of climate change in the 2020 elections and its impact on voter preferences and behavior. The study found that personal views on climate change significantly influenced voter behavior, particularly among independents. While the majority of Democrats and independents expressed concern about climate change, about a quarter of Republicans who deemed it extremely important voted for President Biden. Despite being a strong indicator in past elections, the study concluded that climate change was not the primary issue driving voter decisions.
Similarly, a survey by the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago, published on June 4, 2024, found that 54% of participants believe human activities significantly contribute to climate change. It also highlighted that voters most affected by climate issues—those directly exposed to extreme climate events—are more inclined to support candidates advocating for climate action.
Comparing these findings to the current state of U.S. elections reveals two contrasting approaches to climate change. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has consistently supported climate action since her tenure as Vice President under the Biden Administration. In contrast, Donald Trump opposes prioritizing climate change in political decision-making, dismissing it as a hoax aimed at undermining fossil fuel use in the United States.
If American voters were to choose between these two candidates based solely on their climate policies, Harris would likely have an advantage. However, opinion polls indicate that climate change is not the most decisive factor for voters. Other pressing issues, such as the economy and immigration, play a more significant role in shaping voter preferences.
